Saturday, September 7, 2013

Metaphysically Eliminated

There comes a point in every baseball season where teams at the bottom of their division are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs--when the team is further behind in the standings than they have games remaining to play. This season's first out were the Houston Astros, who actually may have been eliminated in August. As of September 7, Bo Porter's team is 34 games behind Oakland in the American League West. Not far behind, or ahead in this case, are the Florida Miami Marlins who trail Atlanta in the National League's Eastern Division by a mere 31.5 games. For the Astros, changing leagues might be part of the problem. For the Fish, maybe it's that ridiculous sculpture in the outfield.

But for other teams, mathematics matter less than metaphysics. This is the case for the New York Yankees and the Washington Nationals. The Yankees have been beaten by the Red Sox on two consecutive nights in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion, add to that a 13-9 Boston win on Saturday afternoon and they are now 75-67. Read all about it here in this David Waldstein piece for The New York Times. The Yankees are out of it and mercifully perhaps with Texeira down, Jeter mostly down, and given all the drama with A-Rod. It's been a blast watching Ichiro (4000 professional hits!) as always and a shame we won't get to see Mo Rivera in the post-season, sort of. It's not impossible that they could sustain long rally for 20 games while Cleveland, Baltimore, and Tampa all collapse like the Red Sox did a couple years ago. But it would likely require something metaphysical. Nonetheless, it is important to note that no one should count the Yankees out of anything until they actually are mathematically eliminated. Ever.

On Opening Day of the 2013 season, the Nationals were picked by over half of Sports Illustrated's "MLB experts" to win the World Series. Experts. Alas, it is not to be. The Nats have struggled with offense and with pitching this year. First pick overall Stephen Strasburg is 6-9 and has had one of the weirdest seasons imaginable. Gio Gonzales is 9-6 with an ERA well below his career average, but he's got more no-decision games than wins--bullpen woes are to blame. Jordan Zimmermann is 16-8, but most of those wins came in the first half. First-round draft pick (number 6 overall), lefty Ross Detwiler has been out for months and reliever Ryan Matheus is still recovering from breaking his pitching hand when he punched a locker in L.A. Starter Dan Haren has struggled, not pitching up to his career stats, and closer Raphael Soriano has done well, but he's a bullpen morale killer and might be doing the same thing in the clubhouse.

Among position players for the Nats, another first pick overall, Bryce Harper hasn't been 100% since he slammed into the outfield wall in Los Angeles in June, and may need off-season surgery to repair his hip. Of course, Harper has been plunked a sufficient number of times this year that he has actually had to sit a game out. Adam LaRoche is batting 30 points under his career average, has hit barely half the number of home runs and RBIs he did last year. Denard Span has finally gotten hot at the end of the season--he has an 18 game hitting streak. Only Jayson Werth seems to be having a career year, and he has been out for weeks with groin pulls, a banged up knee, and a toe infection.

In Davey Johnson's final year as a manager, the team has just never gotten it together, hovering near .500 and holding on to second place in the NL East for most of the season. But 13 games behind Atlanta tonight, and tied with Arizona at eight games back for the second wild card with only 21 games left? Barring something rivaling divine intervention--metaphysics again--the Nats are out of it for this season. Nonetheless, there's a load of good baseball remaining this season and I'll keep watching.

But seriously, Let's Go Red Sox.